Preliminary Global River Model report – Press Kit
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Press release
Aussie beaches to double overseas plastic pollution by 2050 without action now: The Ocean Cleanup modelling
New modelling by global non-profit The Ocean Cleanup has revealed that overseas plastic pollution on Australian beaches is set to double from 440 tonnes in 2020 to over 850 tonnes per year by 2050, unless action is taken now.
The Global River Model research estimates plastic emissions from over 200,000 watersheds worldwide and connects to an ocean dispersal model that tracks where that plastic ends up, using ocean circulation and wind data.
This preliminary data is evaluated against over 440 field observations from over 40 rivers worldwide, including plastic flux measurements reported in scientific literature, data from AI-powered river monitoring cameras, and measurements from its own Interceptor barriers (plastic removal) systems.
The analysis found Southeast Asia to be the dominant plastic source for overseas plastic reaching Australia at 170 tonnes, with Indonesia estimated to be the largest single contributor at over 110 tonnes.
Several island nations also contribute 140 tonnes, as a result of limited waste-management capacity allowing plastic entering the ocean to travel long distances on prevailing trade winds to the eastern Australian coast, including Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria.
Plastic also arrives from South America and Africa at 90 tonnes and 40 tonnes respectively, carried across the Southern Ocean and neighbouring basins.
The analysis follows previous research co-authored by The Ocean Cleanup, University of Western Australia, and Minderoo Foundation, which found concentrations of plastic pieces per square kilometre comparable to those in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch in Australia’s Ashmore Reef Marine Park in the Timor Sea.
Given the enormity of the issue, The Ocean Cleanup modelled three policy scenarios consistent with the OECD Global Plastics Outlook, to trace foreign river plastic reaching Australia’s shoreline each year by 2050:
- Business as Usual: By continuing on the current trajectory, overseas plastic would reach around 850 tonnes.
- Regional Ambition: If wealthier countries were to act fast and implement strong policies, it would reach over 570 tonnes.
- Global Ambition: Under rapid and globally coordinated action, it would reverse and fall to around 300 tonnes.
CSIRO research shows Australia’s local coastal plastic is falling even as foreign-born ocean plastic rises, with a 39 percent drop in national coastal debris density over the decade to 2023, and a 16 percent increase in surveyed areas with no debris at all.
Plastic from Australia’s own rivers contributes just 7 tonnes a year as a result.
The rise in foreign plastic arriving on Australian shores while domestic coastal litter falls shows that regional leadership, expertise and funding are the next frontiers for Australia’s clean-up efforts, according to The Ocean Cleanup.
Boyan Slat, founder & CEO of The Ocean Cleanup, said: “Australians are doing a great job of cleaning up their own coastline, but none of that local effort can prevent the arrival of plastic from rivers in other countries. This is the share of plastic pollution that is growing the fastest, and so it is the share that makes the most sense to target.
“This problem is solvable and with ambitious public and private partnerships we can accelerate action in Southeast Asia. This includes leveraging Australian and Pacific expertise in science, technology, and the circular economy, alongside funding streams, to accelerate action in Southeast Asia – where much of the region’s plastic emissions originate.”
Laurent Lebreton, Head of Research at The Ocean Cleanup, and author of the latest research, said: “We’ve known for years that plastic crosses borders; what this model adds is the arithmetic. We can now estimate how much less plastic lands on an Australian beach if a particular country upstream improves its waste collection, which means funding decisions can be argued on numbers.
“The future state of Australian beaches in 2050 can be determined now. Through collective national and regional action across Asia and the Pacific we can all have clean beaches and safeguard our marine environments for people to enjoy in the future .”
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Please contact Priyanka Dogra for any interview requests: +61 410 593 587
About The Ocean Cleanup
is a global nonprofit that develops and scales solutions to rid the world’s oceans of plastic. By conducting extensive research, engineering scalable solutions, and partnering with governments, industry, and like-minded organizations, The Ocean Cleanup is working to stop plastic inflow via rivers and remove legacy plastic already polluting the oceans. As of September 2026, the non-profit has collected over 62 million kilograms (136.7 million pounds) of trash from aquatic ecosystems around the world. Founded in 2013 by Boyan Slat, The Ocean Cleanup now employs a multi-disciplined team of approximately 200 people. The organization is headquartered in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, with international operations in 13 countries.
Preliminary Global River Model report
Mapping Global Plastic Leakage from Rivers to Australian Shorelines
Plastic pollution reaching Australia’s coastline cannot be addressed solely within Australia’s borders. The Ocean Cleanup’s modelling shows that the amount of foreign riverine plastic reaching Australia depends strongly on waste-management and plastic-pollution policies implemented across the wider region, and ultimately around the world.
Global river plastic model
We present a new generation of our global river plastic model, building on more than a decade of model development and global field observations. The model estimates where mismanaged plastic waste is most likely to enter rivers, how it is transported downstream, and ultimately how much reaches the ocean.
The model operates at a high spatial resolution of 3 arc-seconds (approximately 90 metres) and accounts for topography, hydrology and land use, including differences in plastic transport through urban and vegetated landscapes. River transport probabilities are calibrated using trajectories of GPS drifters released in rivers around the world, allowing the model to reproduce real-world observations. We apply the model to more than 200,000 watersheds worldwide, calculating plastic emissions for each month of the year. This allows us to capture strong seasonal variations in emissions, as well as the influence of tides and water-level fluctuations in estuaries.
Validation against observations worldwide
To estimate actual plastic emissions, we combine the river transport model with information on the sources of mismanaged plastic waste. This includes population distribution, municipal waste generation and the location of open-air dumpsites. The mobilisation of this waste is then linked to environmental conditions such as rainfall and wind.
The resulting model estimates are independently evaluated against more than 440 field observations from over 40 rivers worldwide. These observations include plastic flux measurements reported in the scientific literature, data from automated AI-powered river monitoring cameras, and measurements from The Ocean Cleanup’s Interceptor systems deployed in rivers around the world.
Reconstructing and projecting emissions, 1950 – 2050
Our model is calibrated to 2020, our baseline year, and a report on plastic on the Northwestern coast of Australia, and is then used to reconstruct changes in river plastic emissions from 1950 onwards and project future emissions through 2050. Future projections use three scenarios consistent with the OECD Global Plastics Outlook: (1) Business as Usual, (2) Regional Ambition and (3) Global Ambition.
Business as Usual assumes that plastic waste generation and leakage continue to evolve along their current projected trajectory, without additional measures to reduce plastic entering the environment.
Regional Ambition represents differentiated action, with stronger policies in OECD countries and more gradual or less stringent action elsewhere, reflecting differences in national circumstances.
Global Ambition represents rapid, globally coordinated action, with ambitious measures implemented across all countries to reduce plastic pollution at its source.
These scenarios allow us to assess not only where plastic pollution originates today, but also how the global picture could change under different levels of policy ambition.
From rivers to the ocean
We then connect the river model to an ocean plastic dispersal model to track what happens after plastic reaches the sea. Using ocean circulation and wind data, scientists can simulate the trajectories of floating plastic and quantify how pollution moves across national boundaries. For each country, we can estimate how much riverine plastic remains within its waters, how much reaches its own coastline, and how much is transported towards the waters and shorelines of other countries.
This enables us to identify the international sources of riverine plastic reaching Australia, and to assess how these contributions could change through 2050 under different future scenarios.
What does this mean for Australia?
Our modelling estimates that approximately 440 tonnes of plastic originating from rivers outside Australia reached the Australian shoreline in 2020, with an estimated range of 150–730 tonnes. Without additional action, this impact is projected to nearly double to around 850 tonnes per year by 2050 under a Business-as-Usual scenario. Under Regional Ambition, foreign riverine plastic reaching Australia would continue to increase, but more slowly, reaching more than 570 tonnes per year by 2050. Only under the OECD Global Ambition scenario does the trend reverse. Under rapid and globally coordinated action, foreign riverine plastic reaching Australia’s shoreline is projected to fall to approximately 300 tonnes per year by 2050.
The results also highlight that Australia’s plastic pollution is partly a regional and global issue. Southeast Asia is the dominant source region, with Indonesia estimated to be the largest individual contributor, particularly to pollution reaching northern Australia. Pacific island nations also make an important contribution. Limited waste-management capacity in some island nations means that plastic entering the ocean can be transported over large distances by prevailing trade winds, reaching the eastern Australian coastline, including Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Plastic reaching Australia also originates from much more distant regions. Sources in South America and Africa can contribute through long-range transport by ocean currents across the Southern Ocean and neighbouring ocean basins.
our Case studies
Plastic pollution and other waste doesn’t just harm the environment – it disrupts local economies, affects small businesses, and in some cases forces communities to relocate. Below, you’ll find impactful case studies of how our initiatives are already supporting communities and businesses.
